Hurricane Katia track shifts west, still not a U.S. impact
Published on September 2, 2011 10:30 am PT
- By Kevin Martin - Senior Meteorologist
- Article Editor and Approved - Warren Miller(TheWeatherSpace.com) -- Katia is now a hurricane again, after NOAA dropped her yesterday to a Tropical Storm.
I do not believe it should have been dropped. They are using satellite methods to determine it, not recon. The actual system was only said to be 70 mph, hurricane being 74 mph and higher. Four mph off is not really a big deal to go by satellite and drop the system status down so I kept it hurricane status on TWS.
The system is moving west-northwest along the forecast track model TFM1 here at TheWeatherSpace.com (view this model)
The system will continue moving this way, strengthening as it does so. Now something interesting is happening. There is a deep trough out to the west, over the Eastern United States that will pull Katia toward the North Carolina areas on Wednesday, however I firmly believe she will appear this way and move east of the mainland, now between Bermuda Island and Cape Hatteras.
The effects on the system will be breezy conditions along the coast, with no tropical storm force winds. The system forecast here at TheWeatherSpace.com is not going for a landfall impact of the U.S. and Katia should turn northeast away from the United States.
The path is similar to that of merging Igor and Earl's path of 2010. The wind field on Katia will be small than Earl so both Bermuda and North Carolina will be between it so as of now it may seem as if all land areas will miss the system.
Still far out, but this is the best projection I can give it and it is the best solution to minimize panic in any land area.
WeatherBell's Joe Bastardi continues to think it will be an Eastern U.S. impact. His track was mentioned by him on Fox News and quiet honestly this is not the best thing to do due to people still being affected by Irene. My track would minimize the threat to who was affected by Irene.
Get more in-depth analysis at TheWeatherSpace.com's Hurricane Forecast Center - Click Here
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