May17

Moderate Risk of Tornadoes Across Central Plains on Saturday

All Posts, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota 1 comment

An upper level trough will approach the area, which will up the upper divergence profiles. A boundary will fire off supercells oriented from NE/CO into KS by afternoon through evening.

This is The Weather Space.com‘s projections on Saturday’s tornado risk. The green is slight, yellow moderate, and the red-outline is a focus spot for upgrade.

There will be a cap in place, but forcing should be enough to overcome it.A lot of forecasters are heading more northwest of my initial target, which spans from Greensburg, KS to Wichita, KS and areas in-between. While tornadoes will indeed be possible across a large part of the area … if trends continue then this event will need to be monitored for further upgrades.

The system is very touchy, meaning any shift in dynamics will ruin the forecast accuracy so I’m taking this event very slow. Just remember from then through Tuesday across and east of tornado alley you are under the gun for tornadoes.

I’m doing the best I can to pinpoint where the worst will be but I gotta tell you the setup to me favors stronger tornadoes in Southern Kansas at the moment, similar to May 2007 when Greensburg was hit.

It also looks the same because there will be a dominant southern cell in Southern Kansas. The dominant southern cell will not have competition between other storms and the inflow will be sucking into it from the south, where no additional storms should be. Sound familiar?

Saturday’s risk, including Sunday/Monday will continue to be posted here for everyone to see. Since this is a multi-day severe/tornado event … These will be posted global so everyone will receive them on their news-feeds in-case you have loved ones in the area.

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1 Comment

  1. Deborah says:
    May 18, 2024 at 00:31

    Hit like for this page number didn’t increase comment box section w/like was truncated by advertisements and no way to submit it. Then the page disappeared, to blank. But I like this page! Thank you for the updates on the weather!

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