Long range guidance has been consistent with a system dropping out of Canada, which becomes a very large upper level low over the Central and Eastern United States after May 4th. Where this drops will be the key on what happens and who gets what.
If this drops further west, we’ll be dealing with a possible tornado outbreak in the Eastern United States. If this drops where current progs have it, we’ll be dealing with snowfall down as far as Tennessee, and severe weather across Florida and the Mid-Atlantic States.
At the current time, I’d like to take this further west than current progs show, making this a pretty bad scenario for the Eastern half of the nation should it drop in that track. This kinda of track would bring severe weather and tornadoes from TN/KY eastward and it would need to be watched carefully for further forecast updates.
Regardless, this is an unusually large upper level low being progged and confidence in the track I’m giving it being further west than progged and more dangerous of a system is rising.
Slideshow of one global model showing the eastern track … but use this and drop it over Iowa or Nebraska … and that would be what my long range forecast track would be for where this thing drops and develops.[wzslider] To e-mail the CEO and Senior Meteorologist of TheWeatherSpace.com, use admin@TheWeatherSpace.com
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